A new report titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño,” recently estimated that Nigeria could record 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.
The report, published by the Climate Impact Lab, projected Nigeria as one of the countries expected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths globally, with nearly half of the 66,800 deaths projected across the Sahel region expected to occur in the country.
While these numbers are only estimated figures and not confirmed deaths, it is no news that Nigeria is currently grappling with extreme heat waves as the temperature across the country continues to rise following the unusually strong El Niño weather pattern disruption.
The reports come as the country moves from the rainy season into the hotter, drier months, when prolonged exposure to high temperatures can increase the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
With many Nigerians struggling with unreliable electricity, high living costs, and limited access to cooling, understanding this phenomenon and how to cope with this trend has become increasingly important.
What is El Niño?
The term El Niño (Spanish for ‘the Christ Child’) refers to a natural climate pattern involving warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Normally, the Pacific Ocean experiences low-level surface winds that blow from east to west along the equator, but when these surface winds start to encounter changes in air movement (start blowing the other direction, from west to east), it results in rainfall and temperature changes in different countries.
Some places may experience more heat than usual. Others may experience drought, while some areas may experience unusual rainfall.
But there is something important to understand.
El Niño is not the heatwave itself; it is a climate pattern that can make extreme heat more likely in some parts of the world, which is why scientists are paying close attention to the current climate trend.
What NiMet said about rising heatwaves
In an advisory issued on the 23rd of October, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) a Federal government agency responsible for observing and analysing weather and climate data in Nigeria, warned that there’d be hotter days and increased heat discomfort due to the changing weather conditions in the following months.
The agency explained that reduced rainfall, less cloud cover, and shifting wind patterns could let more sunlight heat the Earth’s surface, resulting in hotter days.
The agency also identified dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke among the health risks associated with excessive heat, warning that prolonged exposure could affect people’s health and productivity.
It also warned that dust and haze could irritate the eyes and respiratory tract, causing coughing, sneezing and breathing difficulties, particularly among people living with asthma and other respiratory conditions.
Who is mostly at risk?
Extreme heat can affect anyone; however, some people are more vulnerable to its effects.
Research by the World Health Organisation (WHO) identifiesolder people, young children, people with chronic illnesses, and outdoor workers as those at greater risk during periods of extreme heat.
Asides these groups, WHO also listed people living with heart, lung or kidney conditions, diabetes and other chronic illnesses as those who may also experience worsening symptoms when temperatures become very high.
Outdoor workers, including farmers, construction workers, traders, and others who spend long periods in the sun, can also be exposed to heat for hours without adequate opportunities to cool down.
Warning signs to look out for
WHO says extreme heat puts extra stress on the body as it tries to maintain a normal temperature. Prolonged exposure can increase the risk of heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
Heatstroke is different and requires urgent medical attention. According to WHO, heatstrokeis a potentially fatal medical emergency. Someone with hot, dry skin, delirium, convulsions or loss of consciousness during extreme heat should receive immediate medical attention.
Moving the person to a cooler place, giving fluids if they can drink, and helping them cool down can help prevent the condition from becoming more serious.
How to cope amid the rising heatwaves
1. Stay hydrated always
Drinking water is critical to regulate your body temperature. As the weather gets hotter, make sure you give your body enough water to keep it functioning at its best.
Don’t wait until you are very thirsty to drink water. Aim for 8 cups (64 ounces, 2 litres) of water per day as a starting point. It’s important to increase your fluid intake, regardless of your activity level.
Thirst is not always the best indicator of your hydration status. One of the easiest ways to tell whether you are meeting your fluid needs is to check the colour of your urine. Pale yellow urine indicates you are well-hydrated. Honey-colored urine indicates you are dehydrated. Other signs of dehydration include: dry mouth, tiredness, dizziness, confusion, muscle cramps, decreased urine output, dry skin, or extreme thirst.
If you work outdoors, carry drinking water. If you begin to feel weak or dizzy while working in the heat, stop and move to a cooler place.
2. Ventilate properly, especially at night
As the weather gets hotter, especially during the day, keep curtains or blinds closed to block sunlight from entering the room and heating floors, walls, and furniture. Also, be careful with windows. Open them wide only when the air outside is cooler than the air inside.
3. Choose breathable bedding and clothing
During this period, heavy sweating is likely; choose light, comfortable clothes that absorb moisture and let air move through, especially indoors. Take cool showers multiple times a day to cool your skin. Try as much as you can to avoid heavy bedding, thick duvets and tight synthetic fabrics that trap heat and moisture. Also, sleeping on the ground floor or north-facing side of the home may help.
4. Reduce heat and humidity indoors
During hot weather, reduce heat from appliances by using heat-producing appliances earlier in the day or later in the evening. Home appliances such as ovens, tumble dryers, washing machines and dishwashers can all make indoor spaces warmer. Cooking and drying clothes indoors can also increase humidity, making it harder for sweat to evaporate.
Use extractor fans when cooking because they remove warm, moist air before it spreads through the home. Research on moisture movement and extractor fans shows that fans can reduce moisture moving from kitchens and bathrooms to other rooms.
Conservatories can also become very hot because sunlight passes through the glass and warms the interior surfaces. Keep them ventilated during the day and, where possible, close internal doors between the conservatory and the rest of the house. Reflective films, blinds, shutters, awnings and shaded roofs can all reduce heat gain.
5. Try low-cost cooling aids safely
Rechargeable hand fans, reusable ice packs, freezer blocks, or cooling pillows may help people feel more comfortable. Wrap ice packs in a cloth or place them on a tray to prevent condensation from soaking bedding or direct contact with skin.
Cooling mattress toppers and bedding that use water or phase change materials may also help. These materials absorb, store and release heat as they change state, although cost and effectiveness vary.
6. Protect babies and children
Dress babies and young children in light clothing and keep them out of direct sunlight for long periods. It is also dangerous to leave a child alone inside a parked car. If a baby becomes unusually weak or shows other signs of illness, seek medical care.
7. Check on older people
Extreme heat can be especially tough for older people. Some live alone, and some have health issues that make hot weather more dangerous. Call or visit them often. Check that they have enough water to drink and a cool spot to relax.
- Media Report