Nigeria has been excluded from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, despite recent policy reforms and improved growth projections that analysts believed would boost its standing.
At a press briefing for the IMF’s Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, the Director of the IMF’s African Department, Dr. Abebe Selassie, named Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda as the continent’s leading performers.
He attributed their progress to fiscal discipline, macroeconomic stability, and favourable external conditions.
Although Nigeria’s growth forecast has been revised upward, with the economy expected to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2025, it still falls short of the 6–8 per cent threshold that defines the region’s fastest-growing economies.
Why Nigeria failed to make the list
Analysts highlight three key factors behind Nigeria’s omission:
- Slower growth pace: The IMF’s top performers are achieving growth rates well above Nigeria’s projected 3.9 per cent, keeping Africa’s largest economy below the cut-off mark.
- Size versus speed: While Nigeria’s economy is the biggest in Africa, smaller economies like Rwanda and Benin are expanding more rapidly due to reforms and increased investment inflows.
- Persistent structural bottlenecks: Inflation, currency instability, subsidy costs, infrastructure gaps, and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on Nigeria’s growth trajectory.
What Nigeria has achieved so far
The IMF’s revised forecast acknowledges modest improvements in non-oil output, oil production recovery, and investor sentiment. Nigeria’s GDP growth rose to 4.23 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 3.48 per cent in the same period last year—a sign of momentum, though still insufficient to match the continent’s top performers.
Implications of the exclusion
- Investor perception: Being listed among Africa’s fastest-growing economies often enhances investor confidence and access to cheaper foreign financing. Nigeria’s absence may signal that further reforms are needed.
- Policy pressure: The development is expected to intensify calls for deeper structural reforms—especially in power, fiscal management, and the foreign exchange market—to accelerate growth.
- Market expectations: Both local and foreign investors are likely to temper short-term expectations while keeping an eye on long-term policy consistency.
The road ahead
Experts argue that Nigeria’s exclusion is not a setback but a reflection of untapped potential. They say that with sustained fiscal discipline, industrial diversification, and stable macroeconomic policies, the country could reclaim its place among Africa’s fastest-growing economies in the coming years.
Despite its slower growth rate, Nigeria remains one of the continent’s largest and most dynamic markets. Unlocking that potential, analysts say, will depend on the government’s ability to turn size into sustained speed.