- Amid fears of further slide
Global oil prices have fallen sharply, now trading slightly above $64 per barrel, raising fresh concerns for Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
The Wall Street Journal’s recent outlook that Brent crude could drop below $50 per barrel before the end of 2025 has intensified worries about the country’s revenue outlook and fiscal stability.
To manage the expected impact of this decline, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has rolled out several measures to shield the domestic economy from the looming oil price shock and maintain steady foreign exchange inflows.
The latest data show Brent futures slipped by 0.71 percent to $64.47 per barrel after the U.S.–China trade discussions failed to address energy matters, keeping global supply prospects uncertain. For Nigeria, the situation poses serious risks as the 2025 national budget is based on a crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel and a daily production estimate of two million barrels.
With oil prices currently below this benchmark, the country’s revenue projections face a shortfall that could expand the fiscal deficit to as high as seven percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Analysts fear this could trigger inflation and further strain economic stability.
In response, the CBN has launched policies to expand non-oil exports, promote backward integration to reduce dependence on imported goods, and improve the flow of foreign exchange through better management of diaspora remittances. The apex bank believes Nigeria’s exchange rate can drive export-led growth if supported by strong production capacity and competitive industries.
Businesses have been urged to pursue export-focused strategies, especially in agriculture, manufacturing, and creative industries. They are also encouraged to adopt import-substitution models and shift from exporting raw materials to producing and selling processed goods that generate higher foreign exchange earnings.
CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, has noted that Nigeria’s creative industry – covering music, film, crafts, and digital exports – could contribute up to $25 billion annually if properly developed. He urged entrepreneurs to explore global platforms and foreign markets to boost dollar inflows into the economy.
The CBN governor also called on telecommunications companies to reduce their reliance on foreign imports by developing essential components locally. He said the backward integration plan for the telecom sector could help strengthen domestic production and support long-term economic growth.
As global oil prices continue to slide, the central bank’s efforts are seen as crucial in helping Nigeria stabilize its economy and sustain development despite falling crude revenues.
